11. Retention & LTV Matrix
Goal: Validate if loyalty tiers drive actual retention and financial uplift.
Loyalty "Lock-In" is Real
Tier 1 players show a +12.3% retention uplift at M+1 compared to non-loyalty users. By M+12, the gap widens significantly, with Tier 3+ players maintaining >50% retention vs. 6.8% for non-loyalty.
Cohort Retention Matrix (M+0 to M+12)
| Cohort | M+0 | M+1 | M+2 | M+3 | M+4 | M+5 | M+6 | M+7 | M+8 | M+9 | M+10 | M+11 | M+12 | Predicted Churn | Accuracy (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Loyalty (Benchmark)Benchmark | 100% | 32.9% | 20.5% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 13% | 12.1% | 11% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 92.5% Conf: High | |
| Tier 1 (Rookie) | 100% | 45.2% | 35.8% | 30.1% | 26.5% | 24.2% | 22.8% | 21.5% | 20.1% | 19.2% | 18.5% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 81.2% Conf: High | |
| Tier 2 (All-Star) | 100% | 68.5% | 55.2% | 48.9% | 44.1% | 41.5% | 39.2% | 37.8% | 36.5% | 35.2% | 34.1% | 33.5% | 32.8% | 65.4% Conf: Med | |
| Tier 3 (MVP) | 100% | 82.1% | 75.4% | 70.2% | 66.8% | 64.1% | 62.5% | 60.8% | 59.2% | 58.1% | 57.2% | 56.5% | 55.8% | 42.1% Conf: High | |
| Tier 4 (Legend) | 100% | 94.5% | 91.2% | 88.5% | 86.1% | 84.2% | 82.8% | 81.5% | 80.2% | 79.5% | 78.8% | 78.1% | 77.5% | 21.5% Conf: High |
Financial Impact per Player (LTV / Deposits / GGR)
- LTV (Lifetime Value)
- Total Deposits
- GGR
Impact Summary
Tier 1 vs Non-Loyalty
+177%
LTV Uplift
Tier 2 vs Tier 1
+204%
LTV Uplift (Graduation Value)
Conclusion: Loyalty participation correlates with massive financial uplift.
Even the first step (Non-Loyalty → Tier 1) nearly triples player value, validating the program's ROI.